Tesla ended 2025 with a strange mix of news. On one hand, investors felt great. They pushed the company’s stock price up during the second half of the year because they believe in Elon Musk’s vision for robots and self-driving cars. On the other hand, actual car buyers seem less excited. Even though the company had a strong third quarter, it likely sold fewer vehicles in the last six months of the year than it did during the same time in 2024.
This Friday, Tesla will release its official delivery numbers for the final months of the year. Experts expect the company to report about 440,900 deliveries, a 11% drop from the previous year. Tesla itself released an even more worried estimate, suggesting the decline could be as high as 15%. Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook has cooled down significantly. Two years ago, analysts thought Tesla would sell 3 million cars this year. Now, they have slashed that number to just 1.8 million.
The past year was a total roller coaster for the company. Sales started poorly because Tesla had to pause production lines to update the Model Y, its most popular car. Musk also faced significant public backlash for his political work with Donald Trump. By April, the company’s stock had dropped 45% as Musk feuded with government officials over trade policies.
However, Musk managed to save the stock price by shifting everyone’s attention to a new goal: a ride-hailing business using “Robotaxis.” In June, Tesla launched a small, invite-only service in Austin, Texas. Even though these cars still have safety drivers and have already run afoul of traffic laws and federal regulators, investors don’t seem to care. They are ignoring the current sales slump and betting that Tesla will dominate AI and transportation in ten or fifteen years.
